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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-09-11T15:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-11T15:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26870/-1
CME Note: A very faint CME seen mainly in SOHO C3. Its source might be an eruption of very minor filament seen in SDO AIA 304 starting at 2023-09-11T13:57Z mostly as dimming West of Active Region 13430. Filament stretches from S12W14 to S29E01. There is a post-eruptive brightening in SDO AIA 304 and dimming in SDO AIA 193. The arrival signature is characterized by a sheath region possibly starting at 2023-09-14T13:22Z and ejecta/CME core possibly starting by 2023-09-14T16:29Z and lasting until approximately 2023-09-14T21:12Z. The boundaries are identified mostly via magnetic field measurements and the ejecta features rotations of the non-radial components.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-14T13:22Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-14T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/26869/1
Model Inputs:
2023-09-11T15:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=3.0, Lat.=-16.0, Speed=419.0, HalfAngle=24.0, Time21.5=2023-09-11T23:47Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2023-09-14T20:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-09-13T05:10Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2023-09-14T18:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20230911_234700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 64.70 hour(s)
Difference: -6.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-09-11T20:40Z

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